Large temperature swings, droughts, and freezes changed the course of Europe’s history, even when they happened on the other side of the world, because that’s just how our climate is.
The long-term weather forecast is never completely reliable. In spite of this, each inhabitant of Europe ought to be interested in what is expected in the future—particularly in the south of the Old Continent, because, just on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea, Africa is stretching away. Every African country can currently boast record-beating natural population growth. Of the top ten countries in the world with the largest surplus of births over deaths, eight of them are from Africa. And when researchers from Gallup World Poll interviewed 453,000 people in 152 countries between 2015 and 2017, the responses showed that the majority of potential migrants live in Africa. More than half of those questioned from Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria dream of moving to the other side of the Mediterranean Sea. The statistical summary of the Gallup World Poll study shows that an estimated 200 million young Africans are thinking about emigrating to Europe.
Meanwhile, the natives of Europe are increasingly unenthusiastic about accepting foreigners, and therefore the risks associated with any decision to migrate there are significant. However, the weather forecast for the future suggests this will become less and less important. As the climate warms, Africa is more often hit by droughts, harvest failure, and all types of catastrophic climate anomalies. These disasters bring poverty, famine and, above all, hopelessness, particularly in countries ruled by cruel dictators or a narrow oligarchy. At times like these, the millions of desperate people no longer think about risk but rather that they have nothing left to lose. And so, off they set.
Drought on the Asian Steppes
‘‘. . . without any beauty, . . . though they all have closely-knit and strong limbs, and plump necks; they are of great size, and low legged, so that you might fancy them two-legged beasts . . .’ That is how Ammianus Marcellinus described with horror the people arriving from the Asian steppes at the end of the fourth century. To top it all, the Huns pushed ahead of them dozens of Germanic tribes, who invaded the borders of Rome in their panic. “They (the
